World events

I predict that isn't going to happen. Brussels will show the UK the door. If only to set an example. London will have little choice other than to act upon §50 immediately.

Volker

Hopefully. But i have zero trust in Muricans. Time will tell.

I'm off to Mars!

As I sat watching the results come in last night, my mild disbelief started turning greater. When I went to bed it looked like it was going to be very tight but Leave would win. Still, waking up to the news was a great shock.

But really, I hope people can get over the vile stuff being thrown around at the moment, dividing friends and families, and get back together. (Not very hopeful about it, given the state the governing party is in at a time when the main opposition party seems hell-bent on self-destruction and is set for at least a generation in the wilderness. Good things rarely happen during such times.)

I'm most dismayed at what I've seen usually-rational people posting on social media. Apparently all those who voted for Brexit were being racist, or are evil, or hate disabled people and the poor, or they're old and want to deliberately fuck up the lives of the young. Some of them certainly were, but not 17 million. 17 million people didn't vote because they're stupid and didn't know what they were doing - I'm sure most of them thought very carefully about it and voted for what they believe is best for them and their families. And they did vote. I may not like the result, the left-wing masses on social media may not like the result, but insulting the people who voted for it - which is the majority of people - isn't going to do anyone any good. In a democracy, sometimes the thing you vote for loses. It's how it is, and I'd rather have that than not be in a democracy.

For me personally it was a hugely difficult decision to vote Remain. I think the EU sucks. I just decided that while it might suck, if it exists then it's probably better to be in it than not. But it was close - nobody knows what happens to us now we've left. Nobody knows it's going to be bad, just like nobody knows it's going to be good. The balance of probabilities might slightly suggest the former, but only just. My pension fund is mostly invested in equities, even though they might crash and burn. A safer option would be to invest in cash. Sometimes you have to take the risk in the hope of reaping the reward.

A great problem is that not one single person - and I am not exaggerating, I do mean not one single person - I heard during this campaign, either on television or radio, in the newspaper, on social media, or (yikes) people I spoke to in person - said they thought the EU is great. The Remain argument always began with "we know it's not great, but..." Well, that's not a cast-iron reason for staying in, sticking with something lousy just in case it's even worse without it. It may have been founded with the best of intentions, to make sure Europe never again goes to war with itself, but it's gone a long way beyond that now. Do the generation of Greek people who have nothing and may never have nothing, all because their economy was destroyed to protect a political ideology, think the EU is great? The Spanish, the Portuguese, the Italians? Astoundingly, looking at my Facebook friends from those countries, they just might do.

I have an 18-month-old daughter. Am I worried for her future? You bet I'm worried - I'm worried because of the clear and present danger of the spread of Islamic terrorism, I'm worried because of the long-term danger of climate change. What's the EU doing about them?

This was a stupid referendum, completely unnecessary, held because at the time it was promised, the person promising it thought he would never have to deliver on it because he didn't think he would win a parliamentary majority. But he did, and he's paid the price, and more importantly Britain has paid the price. I can't say whether it's a price worth paying because I don't know. My job is predicting the financial future, and I don't know. My colleagues at work are a mix of young and old, a mix of those born in Britain, elsewhere in Europe, in Asia - they're smart people, most of them smarter than me, and they don't know either. Some of them voted Leave, some voted Remain. But none of them knows what's going to happen.

Nobody can say with certainty how much the British economy grew during the last financial quarter - and yet people are predicting with apparent certainty how much less it will grow in the coming decades outside the EU compared with inside. But nobody knows. The London stock exchange closed down 2.7%, which almost entirely corrects the gains made over the course of the week as investors started buying equities because they were betting on a Remain vote. That's a mile away from the kind of sharp instant shock people like me were expecting in the event of a Leave vote.

It is time for cooler heads to prevail and stop spouting nonsense. Nigel Farage might be a slimy political operator, but he is not by any stretch of the imagination Marine Le Pen. Boris Johnson looks likely to be our Prime Minister three months from now, which not long ago would have seemed a laughable prospect (and is a scary one to many) - he's a mile away from who I would choose to be Prime Minister, but he is absolutely not Donald Trump, with whom I've seen him compared numerous times today. There are not a load of Tory politicians sitting in gilded rooms surrounded by cash thinking how wonderful it is going to be to start killing off the disabled, or beating up the poor.

Things will normalise, we'll move forward and a lot of brilliant people - and we are blessed with far more of them in this country than our population would suggest we should have - will work tirelessly to get the country on the right track.

Nobody will have read all of this, but all I really wanted to say is - it's not the outcome I wanted, but I don't think it's all doom and gloom - as long as the people who do currently think it's all doom and gloom actually get up and do something about it, rather than stirring up anger and hatred by saying things on Facebook they would never dream of saying in real life. The future's not written yet. We can make it a good one.

Read it all, good points. Hope reason and logic prevails in the end. About the Muslims thing: yes, one huge problem EU is doing nothing about , and which i too mentioned some posts before (or was it the rip thread?) as one of the main EU problems that they need to take a good deep look on themselves about.

Well, I see myself as taking a centre-right stand. I can sympathise with much of what James said. But I too think he's to harsh on the EU. What separates England from the continent is not merely the channel but different view of state and economy. While England leans toward a state that mostly stays clear of economic affairs there is a continental consensus, supported by most of the political parties in most member states, that the state is expected the counter the imbalances of capitalism.

Volker

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

What Martijn said. Screw the politics. Think about the bigger picture. I was going to write as such but you got ahead of me and i completely agree. James is not about not being sure to leave or to go. Yes things are not easy, are tough. EU needs a lot of work by all of us. A rebuild, a refocus, a cleansing from corrupt politicians (as much as possible), a reform of the EU, to find a new common goal for all members and a shock for Germany to stop overlooking the needs of the lesser members and of EU's inexistent borders alongside its poorer members, to stop the ridiculous austerity policy that's tearing EU apart etc etc. But UK was one of the 3 top members, strongest participants and with the firmest economy in EU. By leaving, you leave EU at its fate alone and you go in unchartered waters for yourself too. What uk did, was jump the boat at the hardest point. Bail. Easy way out, even if it means 2 messy years , then UK with its structure and economy will probably and hopefully find its way outside EU, if it doesn't get torn apart by division between the brexit and bremain people (as it is strongly hinted right now). But regarding EU, what we see here is The easy way out, for the UK that is. But you opened the bag now, the bag of unstability, people divided (see what's happening already just 2 days after the result, with Spain and Gibraltar, Scotland, Wales, French nationalists, Denmark, Austria, Netherlands etc). You threw the first rock at EU, now opening the road for the rest which might (hopefully not, but still very possibly) cause great instability in EU's economic future and most importantly: peace. Nobody gives a fuck about this, they think it's an automatic standard, a given. It's not. What Merkel said is very true: EU was mainly formed for Peace and that Peace in the EU is not a given at any time. Instead of mocking her and laughing like many did, we should take a deep hard look on ourselves and think.

The extraordinary political week in Britain is continuing with the main opposition party, Labour, attempting a coup to depose of its leader Jeremy Corbyn. I've been around for 38 years and have never seen anything like it, with seven shadow cabinet members resigning in the wake of another one being sacked last night (in an attempt to stave off the coup!) If ever the country has needed a strong opposition, it's now. (Well, it was probably also during the referendum campaign, and the failure to get a resounding Remain vote from Labour supporters rather than them thinking voting "Leave" was an anti-David Cameron vote was a very significant factor in the result, I think.) Corbyn was unelectable as Prime Minister but descending into civil war at this time of all times is very worrying.

Is anyone here familiar with British constitutional law?

What is needed to act upon §50 Lisbon Treaty. Could the PM act upon the Royal Prerogative or does he need the backing of the Parliament?
Could the Scottish regional Parliament effectively block a diplomatic move referring to §50.
A new PM would probably have to schedule general elections. Would that in effect amount to a new Brexit referendum that could empower the MP to set the whole thing aside? Is that the card that Cameron is playing?

Volker

http://news.sky.com/story/1717826/backt … ey-promise voted brexit 'cause they want change my ass; they fell into the populist trap, the cheap promises, the lies of the corrupt politicians once again, like sheep. I am used with stupid Greeks / Cypriots (or better: sheepriots) doing such idiotic stuff throughout our modern history all the time, but i had held uk citizens to a higher esteem, not this.

I read an interesting article that basically said 'the next PM is f*cked and Cameron played a blinder".
By not invoking Article 50 straight away himself, but instead leaving it to the next PM, Cameron has placed all responsibility with that next PM.

If the next one does not invoke Article 50, he/she is toast, because a majority of the population voted for Brexit (not to mention, England will look like an ass before the EU and will be a laughing stock). If the next pm does trigger Article 50, then there'll be the fall out of all of that, including a possible Scot referendum and Northern Ireland referendum. Whichever way... that next PM is doomed either way and Cameron played it brilliantly. Boris knows it hence "there is no haste". Haha.

P.s. I loved Calais' reaction. Paraphrased: "Fine... your border is in Dover, not in Calais. We will stop checking and stopping immigrants and ship 'm over for you to deal with it at your border." #checkmate! :D

BoJo and Farage , the architects of Brexit are both out. They've dragged you out and now they are abandoning ship. Isn't that an alarm enough on its own to cancel this farce and re-do the referendum? or completely ignore it?

Indeed. Labour party is already half-destroyed so far and its leader inspired very little confidence to people.